Climate neutrality for Germany is possible by 2045
There are ways to achieve a net-zero energy system in Germany, according to a recent study by Jülich-based systems researchers, who have examined infrastructure, the economy and society. However, sectors such as the automotive and metal industries face a higher risk of job losses during the transition.
How can Germany achieve ‘net zero’ cost-effectively by 2045? A team of systems analysts at Forschungszentrum Jülich has examined possible scenarios and investigated the regional impacts on the path to greenhouse gas neutrality. Key findings from the researchers: Hydrogen production will initially be established in the north. The expansion and use of offshore wind energy requires a major expansion of the electricity grids. According to the researchers, achieving net zero in Germany by 2045 is still possible, both technically and economically – as demonstrated by the highly detailed analyses. In earlier studies, they focused on national efforts towards greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045. In their follow-up study, they now adopt a regional perspective and outline a transformation pathway that takes all infrastructure into account collectively.
Regional variations in the scale of expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics
According to the study, electricity from wind energy and photovoltaics will account for over 90 per cent of the electricity supply in future. If the costs of the necessary expansion of renewable energy are to be minimised, this expansion must be adapted to regional conditions. This allows the potential of each region to be utilised optimally, whilst ensuring security of supply.
Northern Germany has significant resources for wind energy. Consequently, electricity generation from renewable sources will rise disproportionately there, and new energy hubs will emerge. To capitalise on this geographical advantage, flexible use of the electricity must be possible. For example, the construction of electrolysis plants for hydrogen production is initially being driven forward in the coastal regions.
The development of hydrogen production in the southern and eastern federal states will follow in a later phase of the transition, in order to meet the growing demand for hydrogen. Around 10 per cent of Germany’s electrolysis capacity will be located in these areas. This regional distribution will minimise the need to curtail renewable energy generation.
Driving forward infrastructure expansion
To ensure that all regions of Germany can benefit, an expansion of the electricity grid is necessary – this is particularly important for supplying energy-intensive industrial centres in North Rhine-Westphalia and the Rhine-Neckar and Rhine-Main regions. If the expansion of the grid is delayed, less offshore electricity could be sourced. This would then have to be offset by the accelerated expansion of hydrogen infrastructure, onshore renewable energy, electricity storage facilities and power plants that convert stored energy back into electricity. Additional investment of around 8 per cent would then be required in these areas.
Another key aspect for the research team is the development of the hydrogen network to optimally link domestic production, imports, consumers and storage sites. Around 18,000 kilometres of pipelines would be required for this by 2045. However, these would not need to be built from scratch. Demand for natural gas is set to decline – meaning the existing pipeline infrastructure could be converted to carry hydrogen.
The decarbonisation of district heating will be achieved primarily through electricity and biomass, in combination with heat storage systems. Biomass and biogas are used in more rural areas, whilst electricity is used in urban centres.
According to the study, security of supply during periods of low wind and sunshine – when wind and solar power generation is reduced – is ensured by power stations fuelled by hydrogen, biogas and biomass. A large proportion of hydrogen power station capacity will be installed in Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia, in the immediate vicinity of hydrogen storage facilities in salt caverns. By 2030, this will account for just over half of all capacity; by 2045, two-thirds. The electricity generated from hydrogen can be transmitted to the south via the electricity grid. Extensive hydrogen storage, including the conversion of existing cavern storage facilities and the construction of new salt caverns, is necessary to ensure the required flexibility and security within the system.
Business and society ready for transformation
The transition to greenhouse gas neutrality presents both opportunities and risks for economic development. For instance, employment growth compared with today is expected across all regions of Germany due to rising demand in various sectors. However, some sectors, such as the automotive and metals industries, face a higher risk of job losses during the transition.
Representative surveys have shown that a large majority of the German population has a positive attitude towards renewable energies and hydrogen technologies. This broad acceptance is an important foundation for the further implementation of the energy transition.
Custom-developed software
The study is based on detailed calculations using the ETHOS software suite, which was developed by scientists at Jülich specifically for this task. It enables a scientifically sound analysis of the most cost-effective strategies and measures for achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets.
The ETHOS computer models can be used to map Germany’s energy supply, including its generation pathways and all their interactions – with a high level of detail in terms of both time and space, as FZ Jülich assures us. The software takes into account future interconnections of energy imports and exports and carries out a comprehensive infrastructure analysis that includes all relevant energy carriers such as electricity, gas, hydrogen and heat. These comprehensive analyses are crucial for making informed decisions on shaping the energy transition and effectively driving forward the transformation towards a sustainable energy supply.
Source: Forschungszentrum Jülich